Big Ten Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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50 of 129 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
9-0 OregonORE 8-1 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	4.3%
8-1 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU 51.0% Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 48.9%	3.1%
9-0 OregonORE Penn StatePSU 8-1 IndianaIU	OregonOREPenn StatePSU	1.1%
9-0 Penn StatePSU 8-1 IndianaIU OregonORE	CCG participants not 100% certain OregonOREPenn StatePSU 95.6% IndianaIUPenn StatePSU 4.4%	0.8%
9-0 OregonORE 8-1 IndianaIU Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain OregonOREPenn StatePSU 58.3% IndianaIUOregonORE 41.8%	0.7%
9-0 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 98.5%	0.7%
9-0 OregonORE 8-1 Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	0.6%
9-0 IndianaIU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain OregonOREPenn StatePSU 98.7%	0.5%
8-1 Ohio StateOSU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 89.6% Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU 10.4%	0.5%
9-0 IndianaIU OregonORE 8-1 Penn StatePSU	IndianaIUOregonORE	0.4%
8-1 IndianaIU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain OregonOREPenn StatePSU 58.5% IndianaIUOregonORE 36.1% IndianaIUPenn StatePSU 5.4%	0.4%
9-0 IndianaIU Penn StatePSU 8-1 OregonORE	IndianaIUPenn StatePSU	0.4%
9-0 Penn StatePSU 7-2 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU OregonORE	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU 79.5% OregonOREPenn StatePSU 20.5%	0.4%
8-1 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 98.3% OregonOREPenn StatePSU 1.7%	0.4%
9-0 OregonORE 8-1 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	0.3%
9-0 IndianaIU 8-1 OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain IndianaIUOregonORE 62.5% IndianaIUPenn StatePSU 37.5%	0.3%
8-1 Ohio StateOSU 7-2 IndianaIU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 97.6% IndianaIUOhio StateOSU 1.6%	0.3%
8-1 Penn StatePSU 7-2 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU OregonORE	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU 61.4% OregonOREPenn StatePSU 32.1% IndianaIUPenn StatePSU 6.5%	0.3%
8-1 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU OregonORE	CCG participants not 100% certain IndianaIUOhio StateOSU 65.5% Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 34.5%	0.2%
9-0 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU IowaIOWA Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	0.2%
8-1 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU IowaIOWA Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	0.1%
9-0 Penn StatePSU 7-2 IndianaIU IowaIOWA Ohio StateOSU OregonORE	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU 66.7% OregonOREPenn StatePSU 33.3%	0.1%
8-1 IndianaIU 7-2 Ohio StateOSU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain IndianaIUOhio StateOSU 76.1% IndianaIUPenn StatePSU 15.4% IndianaIUOregonORE 8.6%	0.1%
9-0 OregonORE 7-2 IllinoisILL IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 94.7% IllinoisILLOregonORE 3.5% OregonOREPenn StatePSU 1.8%	0.1%
9-0 Penn StatePSU 7-2 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU OregonORE WisconsinWIS	Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU	0.1%
8-1 Ohio StateOSU 7-2 IndianaIU IowaIOWA OregonORE Penn StatePSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	0.1%
8-1 Ohio StateOSU 7-2 IndianaIU OregonORE Penn StatePSU WisconsinWIS	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 46.5% Ohio StateOSUWisconsinWIS 27.2% Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU 26.3%	0.1%
8-1 Penn StatePSU 7-2 IndianaIU IowaIOWA Ohio StateOSU OregonORE	CCG participants not 100% certain OregonOREPenn StatePSU 55.0% Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU 44.0%	0.1%
9-0 OregonORE 7-2 Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 75.8% OregonOREPenn StatePSU 24.2%	<0.1%
8-1 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU MichiganMICH Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain MichiganMICHOregonORE 93.6% Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 6.4%	<0.1%
9-0 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 92.3% IndianaIUOregonORE 7.7%	<0.1%
8-1 OregonORE 7-2 IllinoisILL IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 96.2% IllinoisILLOregonORE 2.6% OregonOREPenn StatePSU 1.3%	<0.1%
8-1 Penn StatePSU 7-2 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU OregonORE WisconsinWIS	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU 96.4% OregonOREPenn StatePSU 2.4% Penn StatePSUWisconsinWIS 1.2%	<0.1%
9-0 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain OregonOREPenn StatePSU 51.5% IndianaIUOregonORE 48.5%	<0.1%
7-2 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 71.8% Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU 25.4% IndianaIUOregonORE 2.8%	<0.1%
8-1 OregonORE 7-2 Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 59.0% OregonOREPenn StatePSU 41.0%	<0.1%
8-1 Ohio StateOSU 7-2 IndianaIU OregonORE	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	<0.1%
8-1 Ohio StateOSU 7-2 IllinoisILL IndianaIU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 72.7% Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU 21.8% IllinoisILLOhio StateOSU 5.5%	<0.1%
8-1 IndianaIU 7-2 IowaIOWA Ohio StateOSU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	IndianaIUOhio StateOSU	<0.1%
9-0 Penn StatePSU 7-2 IllinoisILL IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU OregonORE	Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU	<0.1%
9-0 IndianaIU 7-2 Ohio StateOSU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain IndianaIUOhio StateOSU 92.3% IndianaIUOregonORE 7.7%	<0.1%
8-1 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU WisconsinWIS	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 96.4% OregonOREPenn StatePSU 1.8% OregonOREWisconsinWIS 1.8%	<0.1%
9-0 Penn StatePSU 7-2 Ohio StateOSU OregonORE	OregonOREPenn StatePSU	<0.1%
8-1 Penn StatePSU 7-2 IllinoisILL IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU OregonORE	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU 82.0% OregonOREPenn StatePSU 10.0% IllinoisILLPenn StatePSU 8.0%	<0.1%
8-1 IndianaIU 7-2 Ohio StateOSU OregonORE Penn StatePSU WisconsinWIS	CCG participants not 100% certain IndianaIUOhio StateOSU 94.3% IndianaIUPenn StatePSU 5.7%	<0.1%
8-1 Penn StatePSU 7-2 IndianaIU MichiganMICH Ohio StateOSU OregonORE	MichiganMICHPenn StatePSU	<0.1%
8-1 Ohio StateOSU 7-2 OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 88.4% Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU 11.6%	<0.1%
7-2 IndianaIU IowaIOWA Ohio StateOSU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 52.8% Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU 33.3% IowaIOWAOhio StateOSU 13.9%	<0.1%
9-0 Penn StatePSU 7-2 IndianaIU OregonORE	CCG participants not 100% certain OregonOREPenn StatePSU 94.6% IndianaIUPenn StatePSU 5.4%	<0.1%
8-1 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU	<0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → Common conference opponents → Record against highest-placed opponent → Next-highest, etc.

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.