Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W45-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W23-17 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W30-9 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W31-24 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L7-21 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W50-49 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W21-7 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | L9-38 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:54% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:71% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:64% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:62% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 15.3% | 0.8% |
| 6-3 | 37.0% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 33.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 12.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Penn State
Northwestern
MichiganIllinois
Michigan State
UCLA
Washington
IowaCCG: 3.4% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IllinoisCCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 53.8%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
0.8%
15.3%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27