Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
18.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W31-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W77-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W42-13 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W52-14 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W42-28 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W41-24 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W56-7 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W31-17 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:84% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:58% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:15% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:98% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 7.1% | 88.6% |
| 8-1 | 47.7% | 25.0% |
| 7-2 | 38.8% | 0.4% |
| 6-3 | 6.3% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 21.2% (+2.8%) | 13.8% (-4.6%) | |
| 18.4% (+0.0%) | 18.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 14.1% (-4.3%) | 29.0% (+10.6%) | |
| 18.5% (+0.1%) | 18.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 20.6% (+2.2%) | 6.8% (-11.7%) | |
| 18.1% (-0.3%) | 18.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 18.4% (-0.0%) | 18.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 18.3% (-0.1%) | 18.5% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 40.7% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 32.9% • Scenario: 24.3%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
88.6%
7.1%Any 1 loss
25.0%
47.7%75.9%
1.3%74.4%
5.2%73.3%
0.2%17.0%
41.0%Any 2 losses
3.4%
1.9%5.9%
0.9%2.5%
0.1%1.0%
0.9%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27