Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W30-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L12-31 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-18 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W27-24 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W27-24 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L17-27 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L7-21 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W24-17 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:29% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:42% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:14% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 1.5% | 39.9% |
| 6-3 | 15.3% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 42.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 36.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 3.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.7% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.6%) | 2.1% (+1.5%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ohio State
PurdueMichigan
Minnesota
Michigan State
UCLA
Washington
WisconsinCCG: 11.1% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MichiganCCG: 2.1% • Scenario: 28.8%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
39.9%
1.5%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27