Big Ten

Big Ten Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-27

Big TenConference Standings

T1OregonORE5-08-083.9%
T1IndianaIU5-08-018.4%
T1Penn StPSU4-07-049.1%
4Ohio StOSU3-16-147.6%
T5MichiganMICH3-25-30.6%
T5WisconsinWIS3-25-30.1%
T5IllinoisILL3-26-20.1%
T5MinnesotaMINN3-25-3<0.1%
T5IowaIOWA3-25-3<0.1%
T10Michigan StMSU2-34-4-
T10NebraskaNEB2-35-3-
T10WashingtonWASH2-34-4-
13USCUSC2-44-4-
T14MarylandMD1-44-4-
T14NorthwesternNU1-43-5-
T14RutgersRUTG1-44-4-
T14UCLAUCLA1-42-5-
18PurduePUR0-41-6-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big Ten CCG Matchups

136.2%
OregonORE
vs
PSUPenn St
236.2%
Ohio StOSU
vs
OREOregon
311.2%
IndianaIU
vs
OREOregon
48.3%
Ohio StOSU
vs
PSUPenn St
54.3%
IndianaIU
vs
PSUPenn St
62.9%
IndianaIU
vs
OSUOhio St
70.3%
MichiganMICH
vs
PSUPenn St
80.2%
MichiganMICH
vs
OREOregon
9<0.1%
MichiganMICH
vs
OSUOhio St
10<0.1%
IllinoisILL
vs
OREOregon
11<0.1%
Ohio StOSU
vs
WISWisconsin
12<0.1%
Penn StPSU
vs
WISWisconsin
13<0.1%
MinnesotaMINN
vs
OSUOhio St
14<0.1%
IllinoisILL
vs
PSUPenn St
15<0.1%
IllinoisILL
vs
OSUOhio St

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big Ten CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 83.9%
Game
OregonCCG OddsAway
OregonCCG OddsHome
Ohio StOSU@Penn StPSU
81.6%
(-2.4%)		87.9%
(+4.0%)
NorthwesternNU@PurduePUR
84.0%
(+0.1%)		83.7%
(-0.2%)
OregonORE@MichiganMICH
93.0%
(+9.1%)		61.5%
(-22.4%)
MinnesotaMINN@IllinoisILL
82.6%
(-1.3%)		85.1%
(+1.1%)
IndianaIU@Michigan StMSU
82.6%
(-1.3%)		91.0%
(+7.0%)
UCLAUCLA@NebraskaNEB
84.3%
(+0.4%)		83.7%
(-0.3%)
USCUSC@WashingtonWASH
82.7%
(-1.2%)		85.4%
(+1.5%)
WisconsinWIS@IowaIOWA
83.5%
(-0.4%)		84.3%
(+0.4%)

Best Winner Combination for Oregon

Penn StPenn StatePurduePurdueOregonOregonIllinoisIllinoisMichigan StMichigan StateUCLAUCLA

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.2%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Oregon

OregonOregon

CCG: 93.0% • Scenario: 71.2%

Ways for Oregon to Clinch Big Ten CCG Spot This Week

Penn StPenn StateNorthwesternNorthwesternOregonOregonMinnesotaMinnesotaMichigan StMichigan StateNebraskaNebraskaUSCUSCIowaIowa
0.3%
Penn StPenn StatePurduePurdueOregonOregonIllinoisIllinoisMichigan StMichigan StateUSCUSC
0.3%
Penn StPenn StatePurduePurdueOregonOregonIllinoisIllinoisMichigan StMichigan StateWisconsinWisconsin
0.3%
Penn StPenn StateOregonOregonIllinoisIllinoisMichigan StMichigan StateUCLAUCLAWashingtonWashingtonIowaIowa
0.2%
Penn StPenn StatePurduePurdueOregonOregonIllinoisIllinoisMichigan StMichigan StateUCLAUCLA
0.2%
Penn StPenn StatePurduePurdueOregonOregonMichigan StMichigan StateUCLAUCLAWashingtonWashington
0.2%
Penn StPenn StatePurduePurdueOregonOregonMichigan StMichigan StateUCLAUCLAWisconsinWisconsin
0.2%

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-26-3Overall
OregonORE99.9%83.5%14.9%-83.9%
Penn StPSU99.9%48.6%2.0%-49.1%
Ohio StOSU-99.9%9.3%-47.6%
IndianaIU88.6%25.0%0.4%-18.4%
MichiganMICH--39.9%<0.1%0.6%
WisconsinWIS--2.1%-0.1%
IllinoisILL--0.8%-0.1%
MinnesotaMINN--4.6%-<0.1%
IowaIOWA--0.1%-<0.1%
MarylandMD-----
Michigan StMSU-----
NebraskaNEB-----
NorthwesternNU-----
PurduePUR-----
RutgersRUTG-----
UCLAUCLA-----
USCUSC-----
WashingtonWASH-----

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
OregonORE(5-0)49.3%39.8%10.0%0.9%<0.1%-----8.4
Penn StPSU(4-0)23.8%51.2%21.6%3.2%0.2%0.0%----8.0
IndianaIU(5-0)7.1%47.7%38.8%6.3%0.1%-----7.6
Ohio StOSU(3-1)-43.6%43.0%12.1%1.3%<0.1%0.0%---7.3
IowaIOWA(3-2)--22.6%42.9%27.0%6.9%0.6%---5.8
IllinoisILL(3-2)--15.3%37.0%33.2%12.7%1.8%---5.5
WisconsinWIS(3-2)--5.8%31.8%42.4%17.6%2.3%---5.2
MichiganMICH(3-2)--1.5%15.3%42.6%36.8%3.8%---4.7
MinnesotaMINN(3-2)--1.4%13.0%37.7%37.2%10.7%---4.6
USCUSC(2-4)----40.5%46.4%12.3%0.9%--4.3
Michigan StMSU(2-3)---2.5%21.3%47.7%25.5%3.0%--3.9
WashingtonWASH(2-3)---0.6%9.4%40.7%42.5%6.9%--3.5
NebraskaNEB(2-3)---0.3%4.3%23.7%48.3%23.4%--3.1
RutgersRUTG(1-4)----1.3%10.0%29.9%39.6%19.2%-2.3
NorthwesternNU(1-4)----0.1%4.2%33.3%50.6%11.8%-2.3
MarylandMD(1-4)----<0.1%1.9%23.4%54.2%20.4%-2.1
UCLAUCLA(1-4)----0.3%4.3%21.5%43.5%30.4%-2.0
PurduePUR(0-4)----0.0%<0.1%0.2%4.6%32.2%63.0%0.4

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com