American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-03

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

T1ArmyARMY6-08-093.5%
T1TulaneTULN5-07-290.7%
3NavyNAVY4-16-212.9%
4MemphisMEM3-27-21.6%
T5North TexasUNT2-25-31.0%
T5South FloridaUSF2-24-40.3%
T5East CarolinaECU2-24-4<0.1%
T8CharlotteCLT2-33-6-
T8RiceRICE2-33-6-
T8UT San AntonioUTSA2-34-5-
11TempleTEM1-32-6-
T12TulsaTLSA1-43-6-
T12UABUAB1-42-6-
14FL AtlanticFAU0-42-6-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

184.2%
ArmyARMY
vs
TULNTulane
28.4%
ArmyARMY
vs
NAVYNavy
34.5%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane
41.0%
North TexasUNT
vs
TULNTulane
50.9%
ArmyARMY
vs
MEMMemphis
60.6%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
70.3%
South FloridaUSF
vs
TULNTulane
8<0.1%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
9<0.1%
ArmyARMY
vs
ECUEast Carolina
10<0.1%
ArmyARMY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
11<0.1%
ArmyARMY
vs
USFSouth Florida
12-
East CarolinaECU
vs
TULNTulane
13-
NavyNAVY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
14-
MemphisMEM
vs
UNTNorth Texas
15-
East CarolinaECU
vs
MEMMemphis

Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11

Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 93.5%
Game
ArmyCCG OddsAway
ArmyCCG OddsHome
RiceRICE@MemphisMEM
93.7%
(+0.2%)		93.5%
(-0.0%)
UConnCONN@UABUAB
93.5%
(+0.0%)		93.4%
(-0.0%)
ArmyARMY@North TexasUNT
98.9%
(+5.4%)		81.7%
(-11.8%)
FL AtlanticFAU@East CarolinaECU
93.5%
(+0.0%)		93.5%
(+0.0%)
TempleTEM@TulaneTULN
95.1%
(+1.6%)		93.5%
(-0.0%)
NavyNAVY@South FloridaUSF
91.3%
(-2.2%)		96.7%
(+3.2%)

Best Winner Combination for Army

ArmyArmyTempleTemple

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 1.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Army

ArmyArmy

CCG: 98.9% • Scenario: 68.6%

Ways for Army to Clinch American Athletic Conference CCG Spot This Week

ArmyArmySouth FloridaSouth Florida
27.7%
ArmyArmyTempleTemple
1.1%

Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-2Overall
ArmyARMY100%95.4%-75.8%-21.7%-93.5%
TulaneTULN--100%-87.5%-8.2%90.7%
NavyNAVY-99.9%-40.7%-5.7%-12.9%
MemphisMEM------9.7%1.6%
North TexasUNT------10.0%1.0%
South FloridaUSF------2.4%0.3%
East CarolinaECU------0.2%<0.1%
CharlotteCLT--------
FL AtlanticFAU--------
RiceRICE--------
TempleTEM--------
TulsaTLSA--------
UABUAB--------
UT San AntonioUTSA--------

Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-35-44-44-53-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
ArmyARMY(6-0)41.0%43.4%0.0%14.2%0.0%1.4%0.0%--------8.2
TulaneTULN(5-0)-0.0%59.7%0.0%34.9%0.0%5.3%<0.1%-------7.5
NavyNAVY(4-1)-2.9%-18.9%0.0%40.8%0.0%0.0%30.3%0.0%7.0%----5.8
MemphisMEM(3-2)-----0.0%16.2%68.0%0.0%15.0%0.0%0.8%---5.0
South FloridaUSF(2-2)-----0.0%14.2%40.4%0.0%34.9%0.0%10.0%0.5%--4.6
North TexasUNT(2-2)-----0.0%10.2%37.1%0.0%38.7%0.0%12.8%1.3%--4.4
East CarolinaECU(2-2)-----0.0%5.3%29.2%0.0%45.7%0.0%17.9%1.8%--4.2
UT San AntonioUTSA(2-3)-------6.7%0.0%45.7%0.0%43.3%4.4%--3.5
CharlotteCLT(2-3)-------6.6%0.0%30.7%0.0%43.9%18.9%--3.2
RiceRICE(2-3)-------3.3%0.0%29.2%0.0%47.1%20.4%--3.2
FL AtlanticFAU(0-4)---------7.2%0.0%32.2%39.5%18.2%2.8%2.2
UABUAB(1-4)---------1.5%0.0%21.4%48.2%28.9%-2.0
TempleTEM(1-3)-------<0.1%0.0%0.8%0.0%10.2%44.4%44.6%-1.7
TulsaTLSA(1-4)---------0.2%0.0%4.8%32.8%62.2%-1.4

Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com