Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
90.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L27-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L19-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W41-33 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W45-10 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W71-20 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W24-10 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W45-37 | |
| 10 | 10/31 | W34-3 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:98% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:76% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:80% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 59.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 34.9% | 87.5% |
| 6-2 | 5.3% | 8.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 91.9% (+1.2%) | 90.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 90.8% (+0.1%) | 90.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 88.5% (-2.2%) | 95.4% (+4.7%) | |
| 90.6% (-0.0%) | 90.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 68.2% (-22.5%) | 91.0% (+0.4%) | |
| 87.4% (-3.3%) | 95.5% (+4.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Rice
UConn
North Texas
East Carolina
TempleCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Tulane
South FloridaCCG: 95.8% • Scenario: 39.6%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
59.7%Any 1 loss
87.5%
34.9%
100.0%
15.0%100.0%
0.9%
77.0%
19.0%Any 2 losses
8.2%
5.3%23.5%
0.3%22.3%
0.3%6.4%
4.8%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03