Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
93.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W24-7 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W37-14 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | W42-14 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W49-7 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W44-10 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W45-28 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W20-3 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:69% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:8% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:85% | |
| 12/14 | Win prob:70% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 41.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 43.4% | 95.4% |
| 7-2 | 14.2% | 75.8% |
| 6-3 | 1.4% | 21.7% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 93.7% (+0.2%) | 93.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 93.5% (+0.0%) | 93.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 98.9% (+5.4%) | 81.7% (-11.8%) | |
| 93.5% (+0.0%) | 93.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 95.1% (+1.6%) | 93.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 91.3% (-2.2%) | 96.7% (+3.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Army
TempleCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 1.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ArmyCCG: 98.9% • Scenario: 68.6%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
Army
South FloridaArmyTempleData from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.4%Any 1 loss
99.7%
41.3%
100.0%
37.6%
100.0%
1.5%
94.1%
0.6%
93.3%
1.6%Any 2 losses
94.8%
41.0%100.0%
15.9%92.8%
0.7%92.5%
0.3%92.3%
17.3%92.0%
6.6%22.1%
0.3%Any 3 losses
75.3%
13.1%92.7%
2.8%92.3%
7.2%20.4%
3.0%20.4%
0.1%21.8%
1.3%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03