American Athletic Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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50 of 76 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	1.9%
8-1 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	1.4%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 55.2% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 38.2% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 6.6%	1.3%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 78.8% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 21.2%	0.9%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 77.5% South FloridaUSFTulaneTULN 22.4%	0.9%
9-0 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 75.5% ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 24.3%	0.8%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 67.0% MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 32.5%	0.6%
9-0 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	0.6%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY North TexasUNT	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	0.6%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 98.0% ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 1.8%	0.5%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY East CarolinaECU	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	0.4%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 58.1% ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 41.6%	0.4%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM NavyNAVY	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	0.4%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 74.1% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 25.9%	0.3%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 66.1% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 33.9%	0.3%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 57.4% MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 42.2%	0.2%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 43.7% ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 38.5% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 17.8%	0.2%
9-0 ArmyARMY 7-2 NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	0.2%
9-0 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 66.7% ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 33.3%	0.2%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 97.2% ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 2.8%	0.2%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 61.0% South FloridaUSFTulaneTULN 20.1% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 18.9%	0.2%
8-1 NavyNAVY 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	0.1%
7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 77.0% MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 21.7% ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 1.3%	0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 82.2% MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 17.8%	0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	0.1%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 95.0% ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 3.6% ArmyARMYNorth TexasUNT 1.4%	0.1%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 62.5% ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 37.5%	0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM NavyNAVY North TexasUNT	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	0.1%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 66.7% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 33.3%	0.1%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	0.1%
9-0 ArmyARMY 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 58.0% ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 40.7% ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 1.2%	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	<0.1%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 72.2% ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 25.3% ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 2.5%	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 71.8% MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 28.2%	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY East CarolinaECU	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 49.3% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 32.0% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 18.7%	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 66.7% MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 33.3%	<0.1%
9-0 ArmyARMY 7-2 South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 61.2% ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 37.3% ArmyARMYSouth FloridaUSF 1.5%	<0.1%
7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 43.5% MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 40.3% MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 16.1%	<0.1%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY East CarolinaECU South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 73.9% South FloridaUSFTulaneTULN 26.2%	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 89.1% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 10.9%	<0.1%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 82.0% ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 18.0%	<0.1%
7-2 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYNavyNAVY 78.4% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 19.6% ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 2.0%	<0.1%
8-1 NavyNAVY 7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	<0.1%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	ArmyARMYNavyNAVY	<0.1%
8-1 ArmyARMY 7-2 North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 91.1% ArmyARMYNorth TexasUNT 8.9%	<0.1%
7-2 ArmyARMY MemphisMEM NavyNAVY North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain ArmyARMYMemphisMEM 68.3% MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 26.8% ArmyARMYTulaneTULN 2.4%	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 61.4% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 38.6%	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 ArmyARMY NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	ArmyARMYTulaneTULN	<0.1%
9-0 TulaneTULN 7-2 North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	North TexasUNTTulaneTULN	<0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank / computer rankings → Common conference opponents → Overall winning percentage

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.