Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W49-21 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-11 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W56-44 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W41-18 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W34-7 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W51-17 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | L14-51 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | L10-24 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:24% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:67% | |
| 12/14 | Win prob:30% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 2.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 18.9% | 40.7% |
| 6-3 | 40.8% | 5.7% |
| 5-4 | 30.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 7.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 13.0% (+0.0%) | 12.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.9% (-0.1%) | 13.1% (+0.2%) | |
| 11.9% (-1.0%) | 15.2% (+2.3%) | |
| 13.0% (+0.1%) | 12.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 20.1% (+7.2%) | 12.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 19.4% (+6.4%) | 3.4% (-9.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Rice
UAB
North Texas
Florida Atlantic
TempleNavyCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NavyCCG: 19.4% • Scenario: 59.8%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.9%Any 1 loss
40.7%
18.9%
100.0%
6.7%
21.0%
1.9%
19.5%
1.4%
3.3%
8.9%Any 2 losses
7.9%
29.3%21.2%
3.3%20.5%
4.7%3.0%
21.3%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03