Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
65.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W56-7 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W51-3 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W35-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W34-3 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L15-30 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W27-24 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:94% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:94% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:96% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 69.1% | 93.4% |
| 6-2 | 27.5% | 2.4% |
| 5-3 | 3.3% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5% (+4.3%) | 55.1% (-10.1%) | |
| 65.6% (+0.4%) | 65.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 65.0% (-0.2%) | 65.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 2.2% (-63.0%) | 69.3% (+4.1%) | |
| 61.7% (-3.5%) | 69.7% (+4.5%) | |
| 65.2% (-0.0%) | 65.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Alabama
Mississippi State
MissouriTexas
Ole Miss
VanderbiltCCG: 83.3% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaTexasCCG: 73.9% • Scenario: 65.7%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
93.4%
69.1%Any 1 loss
5.6%
11.4%
12.8%
2.5%
4.2%
4.4%
2.9%
4.5%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03