Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-10
Conference Standings
| 1 |  SMUSMU | 5-0 | 8-1 | 96.0% | |
| 2 |  ClemsonCLEM | 6-1 | 7-2 | 12.6% | |
| 3 |  MiamiMIA | 5-1 | 9-1 | 89.0% | |
| 4 |  LouisvilleLOU | 4-2 | 6-3 | 2.1% | |
| 5 |  PittsburghPITT | 3-2 | 7-2 | 0.2% | |
| 6 |  Georgia TechGT | 4-3 | 6-4 | - | |
| T7 |  DukeDUKE | 3-3 | 7-3 | - | |
| T7 |  SyracuseSYR | 3-3 | 6-3 | - | |
| T7 |  VirginiaUVA | 3-3 | 5-4 | - | |
| T7 |  Virginia TechVT | 3-3 | 5-5 | - | |
| T11 |  Boston CollegeBC | 2-3 | 5-4 | - | |
| T11 |  North CarolinaUNC | 2-3 | 5-4 | - | |
| T11 |  Wake ForestWAKE | 2-3 | 4-5 | - | |
| 14 |  NC StateNCSU | 2-4 | 5-5 | - | |
| 15 |  CaliforniaCAL | 1-4 | 5-4 | - | |
| 16 |  StanfordSTAN | 1-5 | 2-7 | - | |
| 17 |  Florida StateFSU | 1-7 | 1-9 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 96.0%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 95.7% (-0.4%) | 97.7% (+1.7%) | |
| 96.6% (+0.5%) | 96.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 96.0% (-0.0%) | 96.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 73.5% (-22.6%) | 97.9% (+1.8%) | |
| 96.0% (-0.0%) | 96.7% (+0.7%) | |
| 96.0% (-0.0%) | 96.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
PittsburghVirginiaStanfordCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
SMUCCG: 97.9% • Scenario: 92.6%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
PittsburghSMUStanfordPittsburghStanfordCaliforniaPittsburghWake ForestStanfordData from 2024-11-10
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMUSMU | 100% | 100% | 8.6% | 96.0% |
| MiamiMIA | - | 100% | 7.0% | 89.0% |
| ClemsonCLEM | - | 15.5% | <0.1% | 12.6% |
| LouisvilleLOU | - | - | 2.7% | 2.1% |
| PittsburghPITT | - | - | 12.5% | 0.2% |
| Boston CollegeBC | - | - | - | - |
| CaliforniaCAL | - | - | - | - |
| DukeDUKE | - | - | - | - |
| Florida StateFSU | - | - | - | - |
| Georgia TechGT | - | - | - | - |
| NC StateNCSU | - | - | - | - |
| North CarolinaUNC | - | - | - | - |
| StanfordSTAN | - | - | - | - |
| SyracuseSYR | - | - | - | - |
| VirginiaUVA | - | - | - | - |
| Virginia TechVT | - | - | - | - |
| Wake ForestWAKE | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-11-10
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMUSMU(5-0) | 64.7% | 30.9% | 4.1% | 0.2% | - | - | - | - | 7.6 |
| MiamiMIA(5-1) | - | 88.2% | 11.5% | 0.3% | - | - | - | - | 6.9 |
| ClemsonCLEM(6-1) | - | 81.1% | 18.9% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.8 |
| LouisvilleLOU(4-2) | - | - | 77.8% | 21.3% | 0.9% | - | - | - | 5.8 |
| Georgia TechGT(4-3) | - | - | - | 68.2% | 31.8% | - | - | - | 4.7 |
| Virginia TechVT(3-3) | - | - | - | 44.4% | 49.4% | 6.3% | - | - | 4.4 |
| North CarolinaUNC(2-3) | - | - | - | 41.6% | 43.3% | 13.9% | 1.3% | - | 4.3 |
| DukeDUKE(3-3) | - | - | - | 36.7% | 50.4% | 12.9% | - | - | 4.2 |
| PittsburghPITT(3-2) | - | - | 1.9% | 17.8% | 50.1% | 30.1% | - | - | 3.9 |
| VirginiaUVA(3-3) | - | - | - | 1.3% | 20.6% | 78.1% | - | - | 3.2 |
| SyracuseSYR(3-3) | - | - | - | 1.1% | 19.7% | 79.2% | - | - | 3.2 |
| CaliforniaCAL(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 18.1% | 68.4% | 13.1% | 0.4% | 3.0 |
| Boston CollegeBC(2-3) | - | - | - | 1.2% | 17.6% | 47.4% | 33.9% | - | 2.9 |
| NC StateNCSU(2-4) | - | - | - | - | 8.8% | 41.6% | 49.5% | - | 2.6 |
| Wake ForestWAKE(2-3) | - | - | - | 0.1% | 4.7% | 33.5% | 61.7% | - | 2.4 |
| StanfordSTAN(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.2% | 8.7% | 91.1% | 1.1 |
| Florida StateFSU(1-7) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | 1.0 |
Data from 2024-11-10