Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W55-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W28-27 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W73-17 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W34-24 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W17-15 | |
| 9 | 10/24 | W41-13 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | L25-48 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | L19-24 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:19% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:18% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:54% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 1.9% | 12.5% |
| 5-3 | 17.8% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 50.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 30.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.2%) | 1.3% (+1.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.3%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Pittsburgh
Virginia
North Carolina
Boston College
Louisville
CaliforniaCCG: 10.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
PittsburghCCG: 1.3% • Scenario: 18.9%
Data from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
12.5%
1.9%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10