Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W62-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W49-14 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W31-19 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L24-31 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L27-34 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W24-20 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L45-52 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W31-27 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W33-21 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:95% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:82% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:68% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 77.8% | 2.7% |
| 5-3 | 21.3% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-2.1%) | 11.0% (+8.9%) | |
| 1.9% (-0.2%) | 2.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.0% (-0.1%) | 2.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.2% (+1.1%) | 2.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.2% (+0.1%) | 0.0% (-2.1%) | |
| 2.1% (+0.1%) | 2.1% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 11.6% • Scenario: 18.0%
Data from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
2.7%
53.1%2.7%
24.7%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10