Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L3-34 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W66-20 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W59-35 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W40-14 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W29-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W49-14 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W48-31 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | L21-33 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W24-14 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 81.1% | 15.5% |
| 6-2 | 18.9% | 0.1% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 15.5% (+2.9%) | 0.1% (-12.5%) | |
| 12.5% (-0.1%) | 12.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.6% (+0.0%) | 12.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 31.3% (+18.7%) | 11.1% (-1.5%) | |
| 12.6% (+0.0%) | 12.2% (-0.4%) | |
| 12.4% (-0.2%) | 12.6% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 15.5% • Scenario: 81.1%
Data from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
15.5%
42.2%Any 1 loss
15.6%
35.4%16.0%
4.8%15.5%
30.6%15.5%
3.5%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10