Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
44.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W31-26 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L10-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-9 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W38-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W48-21 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L28-31 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W34-7 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W34-23 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W41-27 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:65% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:45% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 25.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 48.2% | 37.6% |
| 6-3 | 23.8% | 3.8% |
| 5-4 | 2.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 46.8% (+2.5%) | 42.4% (-1.8%) | |
| 53.7% (+9.4%) | 42.2% (-2.1%) | |
| 44.3% (+0.0%) | 44.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 17.1% (-27.1%) | 58.6% (+14.3%) | |
| 44.4% (+0.1%) | 44.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 56.0% (+11.8%) | 41.6% (-2.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Baylor
Cincinnati
BYUColorado
Houston
Arizona StateCCG: 88.1% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ColoradoCCG: 58.6% • Scenario: 65.5%
Data from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
25.2%Any 1 loss
37.6%
48.2%
52.3%
4.1%
39.3%
13.2%
35.0%
30.9%Any 2 losses
3.8%
23.8%5.7%
2.2%3.7%
16.4%3.3%
5.2%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10