Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
95.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W41-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W18-15 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-14 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W38-9 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W34-28 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W41-19 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W38-35 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W37-24 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W22-21 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:59% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:57% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:89% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 30.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 47.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 21.0% | 88.4% |
| 6-3 | 1.9% | 3.2% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 95.8% (+0.1%) | 95.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 97.3% (+1.6%) | 95.3% (-0.4%) | |
| 90.2% (-5.5%) | 99.5% (+3.8%) | |
| 97.6% (+1.9%) | 94.7% (-1.0%) | |
| 95.7% (-0.0%) | 95.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 92.5% (-3.2%) | 96.4% (+0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
CincinnatiBYU
UtahCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 3.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BYUCCG: 99.5% • Scenario: 59.3%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
BYUUtah
Kansas StateCincinnatiBYUUtah
BaylorCincinnatiBYUKansas StateData from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
30.0%Any 1 loss
100.0%
47.1%Any 2 losses
88.4%
21.0%
92.5%
2.6%
89.9%
2.8%87.5%
15.6%3.2%
1.9%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10