Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W38-20 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L27-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-16 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-0 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L41-44 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W19-13 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W24-14 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | L23-34 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | L24-31 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:18% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:15% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:50% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | 1.4% | 17.0% |
| 5-4 | 15.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 48.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 34.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+1.1%) | 0.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.3%) | 0.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
BaylorCincinnati
Kansas
Utah
Houston
Kansas StateCCG: 3.7% • Scenario: 0.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
CincinnatiCCG: 1.4% • Scenario: 18.2%
Data from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
17.0%
1.4%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10