Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
59.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W63-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W42-16 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W42-10 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W41-34 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L35-40 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W27-25 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L17-24 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W34-0 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W42-13 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 87.5% | 68.2% |
| 5-3 | 12.2% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 58.3% (-1.3%) | 62.7% (+3.1%) | |
| 58.8% (-0.9%) | 77.5% (+17.8%) | |
| 62.4% (+2.8%) | 58.8% (-0.9%) | |
| 59.6% (-0.0%) | 59.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 14.2% (-45.5%) | 80.7% (+21.0%) | |
| 59.9% (+0.2%) | 59.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 59.6% (-0.0%) | 59.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 59.6% (-0.1%) | 59.7% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida
Arkansas
Missouri
New Mexico StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
GeorgiaCCG: 80.7% • Scenario: 68.4%
Data from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
68.2%
78.8%
68.2%
8.7%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10