Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
84.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W63-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W42-16 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W42-10 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W41-34 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L35-40 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W27-25 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L17-24 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W34-0 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W42-13 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | W52-7 | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:91% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2024-11-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 87.7% | 96.9% |
| 5-3 | 12.0% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-17
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 87.6% (+2.7%) | 72.1% (-12.8%) | |
| 84.6% (-0.3%) | 85.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 84.9% (+0.0%) | 84.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 85.0% (+0.1%) | 84.1% (-0.8%) | |
| 87.7% (+2.8%) | 84.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 85.6% (+0.7%) | 84.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 85.7% (+0.8%) | 84.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 84.5% (-0.4%) | 85.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 84.9% (+0.0%) | 84.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 93.5% (+8.6%) | 0.0% (-84.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Mississippi State
Kentucky
UTEPCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MissouriAlabamaCCG: 96.6% • Scenario: 74.8%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
Missouri
Florida
MassachusettsAlabamaMissouriFlorida
Wofford
VanderbiltAlabamaData from 2024-11-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
96.9%
87.7%Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-17