SEC

SEC Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-17

SECConference Standings

T1TexasTEX5-19-177.9%
T1Texas A&MTA&M5-18-214.6%
3GeorgiaUGA6-28-222.3%
4TennesseeTENN5-28-2<0.1%
T5AlabamaALA4-28-284.9%
T5MississippiMISS4-28-20.3%
7South CarolinaSC5-37-3-
T8LSULSU3-36-4-
T8MissouriMIZ3-37-3-
T8VanderbiltVAN3-36-4-
T11ArkansasARK3-45-5-
T11FloridaFLA3-45-5-
T13AuburnAUB1-54-6-
T13OklahomaOU1-55-5-
15KentuckyUK1-64-6-
16Mississippi StMSST0-62-8-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely SEC CCG Matchups

165.5%
AlabamaALA
vs
TEXTexas
211.4%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TEXTexas
311.2%
AlabamaALA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
48.2%
AlabamaALA
vs
UGAGeorgia
52.6%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
60.8%
TexasTEX
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
70.2%
MississippiMISS
vs
TEXTexas
8<0.1%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TENNTennessee
9<0.1%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
MISSMississippi
10-
MississippiMISS
vs
TA&MTexas A&M

Data from 2024-11-17 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11Week 12Week 13

Data from 2024-11-17 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on SEC CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 84.9%
Game
AlabamaCCG OddsAway
AlabamaCCG OddsHome
MissouriMIZ@Mississippi StMSST
87.6%
(+2.7%)		72.1%
(-12.8%)
Louisiana TechLT@ArkansasARK
84.6%
(-0.3%)		85.0%
(+0.1%)
Texas A&MTA&M@AuburnAUB
84.9%
(+0.0%)		84.9%
(-0.0%)
MississippiMISS@FloridaFLA
85.0%
(+0.1%)		84.1%
(-0.8%)
KentuckyUK@TexasTEX
87.7%
(+2.8%)		84.8%
(-0.1%)
UTEPUTEP@TennesseeTENN
85.6%
(+0.7%)		84.9%
(-0.0%)
MassachusettsMASS@GeorgiaUGA
85.7%
(+0.8%)		84.9%
(-0.0%)
WoffordWOF@South CarolinaSC
84.5%
(-0.4%)		85.0%
(+0.1%)
VanderbiltVAN@LSULSU
84.9%
(+0.0%)		84.9%
(+0.0%)
AlabamaALA@OklahomaOU
93.5%
(+8.6%)		0.0%
(-84.9%)

Best Winner Combination for Alabama

Mississippi StMississippi StateKentuckyKentuckyUTEPUTEP

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Alabama

MissouriMissouriAlabamaAlabama

CCG: 96.6% • Scenario: 74.8%

Ways for Alabama to Clinch SEC CCG Spot This Week

MissouriMissouriFloridaFloridaMassachusettsMassachusettsAlabamaAlabama
0.1%
MissouriMissouriFloridaFloridaWoffordWoffordVanderbiltVanderbiltAlabamaAlabama
0.1%

Data from 2024-11-17 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team7-16-2Overall
AlabamaALA-96.9%84.9%
TexasTEX100%0.3%77.9%
GeorgiaUGA-22.3%22.3%
Texas A&MTA&M100%3.0%14.6%
MississippiMISS-0.3%0.3%
TennesseeTENN-0.1%<0.1%
ArkansasARK---
AuburnAUB---
FloridaFLA---
KentuckyUK---
LSULSU---
Mississippi StMSST---
MissouriMIZ---
OklahomaOU---
South CarolinaSC---
VanderbiltVAN---

Data from 2024-11-17 • SportsSimulate.com

SECFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team7-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
TexasTEX(5-1)77.8%21.5%0.6%-----6.8
GeorgiaUGA(6-2)-100%------6.0
TennesseeTENN(5-2)-91.4%8.6%-----5.9
AlabamaALA(4-2)-87.7%12.0%0.3%----5.9
Texas A&MTA&M(5-1)12.8%59.5%27.7%-----5.9
MississippiMISS(4-2)-84.9%14.8%0.3%----5.8
South CarolinaSC(5-3)--100%-----5.0
LSULSU(3-3)--62.2%34.6%3.2%---4.6
MissouriMIZ(3-3)--61.9%33.7%4.4%---4.6
ArkansasARK(3-4)---24.9%75.1%---3.2
VanderbiltVAN(3-3)--0.9%17.2%81.8%---3.2
FloridaFLA(3-4)---13.6%86.4%---3.1
OklahomaOU(1-5)----2.8%34.1%63.0%-1.4
AuburnAUB(1-5)----1.2%35.6%63.2%-1.4
KentuckyUK(1-6)-----3.2%96.9%-1.0
Mississippi StMSST(0-6)-----0.3%18.7%81.0%0.2

Data from 2024-11-17 • SportsSimulate.com