Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
77.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W56-7 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W51-3 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W35-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W34-3 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L15-30 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W27-24 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W49-17 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | W20-10 | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:80% |
Data from 2024-11-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 77.8% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 21.5% | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-17
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-17
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 77.8% (-0.1%) | 78.5% (+0.6%) | |
| 78.6% (+0.7%) | 77.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 78.0% (+0.1%) | 77.7% (-0.2%) | |
| 77.8% (-0.1%) | 78.7% (+0.8%) | |
| 1.8% (-76.1%) | 80.4% (+2.5%) | |
| 78.6% (+0.7%) | 77.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 78.6% (+0.7%) | 77.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 78.2% (+0.3%) | 77.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 78.0% (+0.1%) | 77.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 77.9% (-0.0%) | 78.1% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UTEP
MassachusettsCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TexasCCG: 80.4% • Scenario: 96.9%
Data from 2024-11-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
77.8%
2.2%
2.5%Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-17