Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
22.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W34-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W48-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W13-12 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L34-41 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W31-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W41-31 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W30-15 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W34-20 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | L10-28 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | W31-17 | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2024-11-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 100.0% | 22.3% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-17
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-17
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 19.5% (-2.8%) | 35.4% (+13.1%) | |
| 22.5% (+0.2%) | 22.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 16.1% (-6.2%) | 34.0% (+11.7%) | |
| 22.5% (+0.2%) | 20.8% (-1.5%) | |
| 89.0% (+66.8%) | 20.1% (-2.2%) | |
| 21.6% (-0.7%) | 22.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 21.6% (-0.6%) | 22.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 22.7% (+0.4%) | 22.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 22.6% (+0.3%) | 22.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 15.2% (-7.0%) | 91.7% (+69.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 1.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 91.7% • Scenario: 9.2%
Ways for
to Clinch
CCG Spot This Week
Data from 2024-11-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
22.2%
94.0%Any 1 loss
23.1%
5.9%23.4%
5.0%21.3%
1.0%27.6%
<0.1%Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-17