Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W51-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:96% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:57% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:98% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:83% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:15% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:50% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:64% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:88% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:91% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.8% | 98.9% |
| 7-1 | 14.8% | 43.7% |
| 6-2 | 33.1% | 0.9% |
| 5-3 | 31.5% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 14.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 8.3% (-0.2%) | 8.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.4% (-2.1%) | 8.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.3% (-0.3%) | 8.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 7.5% (-1.0%) | 10.0% (+1.4%) | |
| 8.5% (+0.0%) | 8.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.1% (-0.5%) | 8.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 8.9% (+0.4%) | 8.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.6% (+0.1%) | 8.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.2% (-0.3%) | 8.9% (+0.4%) | |
| 1.1% (-7.4%) | 8.8% (+0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Akron
Arkansas
UCLA
Georgia Southern
Mississippi StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Texas
OklahomaMissouriCCG: 10.4% • Scenario: 39.0%
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.9%
1.7%Any 1 loss
43.8%
14.5%
96.4%
<0.1%
67.1%
0.9%
66.7%
0.3%58.0%
0.2%
54.5%
1.3%
52.7%
<0.1%49.3%
0.2%40.3%
1.6%
39.4%
9.9%Any 2 losses
2.0%
20.4%83.3%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%39.8%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
0.2%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
0.2%4.2%
0.1%4.1%
0.7%4.0%
0.1%3.7%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%1.5%
5.6%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
2.0%1.1%
1.0%0.9%
0.4%0.9%
0.3%0.9%
0.2%0.8%
7.4%0.6%
1.2%Any 3 losses
4.8%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15