Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W38-22 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:71% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:90% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:23% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:26% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:29% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:26% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:31% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:23% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:83% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:13% |
Data from 2024-09-15
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.2% | 83.1% |
| 6-2 | 2.2% | 21.3% |
| 5-3 | 10.1% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 24.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 34.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 23.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 5.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-15
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-15
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.3%) | 0.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.1%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.2%) | 0.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.6%) | 0.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-15
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
87.9%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
39.6%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.5%
<0.1%24.3%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
19.4%
1.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
0.1%23.8%
0.2%21.3%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.3%
0.1%18.0%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.3%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.4%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%8.5%
0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%Any 4 losses
5.5%
2.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.5%0.8%
0.4%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-15
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-15