Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W34-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L33-41 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:66% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:90% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:79% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:56% | |
| 10 | 10/29 | Win prob:43% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:84% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:42% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:83% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 14.6% | 61.8% |
| 6-2 | 29.0% | 26.3% |
| 5-3 | 29.8% | 6.5% |
| 4-4 | 17.2% | 0.7% |
| 3-5 | 5.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 21.5% (-0.1%) | 21.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 21.3% (-0.4%) | 21.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 21.5% (-0.1%) | 21.9% (+0.3%) | |
| 21.7% (+0.1%) | 21.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 21.1% (-0.5%) | 21.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 21.8% (+0.2%) | 21.1% (-0.5%) | |
| 21.4% (-0.3%) | 21.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 22.4% (+0.8%) | 21.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 21.6% (+0.0%) | 21.6% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Texas State
Georgia Southern
Wake Forest
Ball State
Western Michigan
UL MonroeCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Georgia State
James Madison
Liberty
MarshallCCG: 22.1% • Scenario: 35.6%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.9%Any 1 loss
64.9%
10.8%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
1.0%
100.0%
1.6%
100.0%
0.5%
100.0%
0.2%
95.4%
0.4%61.5%
2.6%
55.3%
1.4%
21.5%
2.7%Any 2 losses
43.2%
18.6%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.9%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.3%99.0%
0.1%98.9%
0.2%95.3%
0.3%94.3%
0.1%92.2%
0.2%66.5%
2.0%63.8%
0.4%61.8%
0.7%61.5%
1.3%60.3%
1.1%59.9%
0.7%50.0%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%32.5%
<0.1%23.0%
0.7%23.0%
2.2%22.4%
1.3%15.1%
0.3%10.3%
0.5%7.7%
0.5%7.4%
0.3%6.4%
0.2%5.6%
0.3%5.1%
0.3%4.4%
0.5%1.7%
0.5%0.7%
1.8%Any 3 losses
27.2%
14.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
0.2%97.9%
<0.1%95.2%
0.1%94.8%
<0.1%67.3%
0.5%67.1%
0.4%64.6%
0.3%63.9%
1.1%60.0%
0.5%58.7%
0.2%54.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%31.7%
<0.1%28.0%
0.6%25.9%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%24.9%
0.4%23.9%
1.0%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.7%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.4%
0.1%13.2%
0.1%12.4%
0.2%12.3%
0.1%12.0%
0.4%11.9%
0.4%11.8%
<0.1%9.9%
0.3%9.9%
0.1%8.2%
0.3%7.6%
0.2%7.2%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.6%
0.2%5.4%
0.2%5.4%
0.1%5.3%
0.2%4.7%
0.3%4.3%
0.1%4.1%
0.3%3.6%
<0.1%3.4%
0.4%2.8%
0.4%1.7%
0.1%1.3%
0.9%1.3%
0.5%1.3%
1.4%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22