Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
61.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-23 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W41-17 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L21-26 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:73% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:57% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:73% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:77% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:78% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:93% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 10.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 28.8% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 32.6% | 64.4% |
| 5-3 | 19.3% | 4.4% |
| 4-4 | 7.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 61.2% (-0.1%) | 61.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 62.7% (+1.4%) | 61.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 64.1% (+2.8%) | 61.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 61.2% (-0.1%) | 62.1% (+0.8%) | |
| 61.3% (+0.0%) | 61.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 60.7% (-0.7%) | 61.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 62.0% (+0.7%) | 61.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 61.5% (+0.2%) | 61.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 61.2% (-0.1%) | 61.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Central Michigan
Ball State
Akron
Kent State
Western MichiganCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AkronCCG: 64.1% • Scenario: 9.0%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
10.7%Any 1 loss
100.0%
28.8%
100.0%
4.9%
100.0%
3.9%
100.0%
3.2%100.0%
0.8%
100.0%
4.0%
100.0%
3.0%
99.9%
8.3%99.9%
0.8%Any 2 losses
64.4%
32.6%91.8%
<0.1%84.5%
0.3%82.0%
0.6%80.4%
0.2%80.1%
0.3%79.7%
0.6%78.7%
2.5%77.0%
0.3%76.2%
0.4%74.1%
0.2%73.7%
0.3%72.0%
0.2%70.4%
0.3%70.3%
0.3%69.6%
1.2%68.2%
2.3%66.1%
1.2%65.1%
3.1%64.0%
1.5%63.9%
3.2%62.5%
1.0%58.5%
3.6%57.6%
1.8%57.0%
1.2%55.7%
1.6%54.6%
1.4%53.4%
1.1%50.8%
1.9%Any 3 losses
4.4%
19.2%13.0%
<0.1%11.0%
<0.1%10.3%
0.1%10.2%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.1%9.6%
0.2%8.9%
0.1%8.8%
0.2%8.3%
0.1%7.5%
0.2%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
0.2%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.2%6.4%
0.7%6.2%
0.2%6.2%
0.4%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
0.9%5.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%5.1%
0.9%5.0%
0.2%4.8%
0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.6%
1.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.5%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.4%4.1%
1.1%4.0%
0.4%3.7%
0.6%3.6%
1.0%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
0.8%3.4%
0.2%3.3%
0.3%3.3%
0.3%3.1%
0.5%3.1%
0.5%3.1%
0.8%3.0%
1.4%2.8%
0.1%2.5%
1.3%2.5%
0.5%2.4%
0.7%1.6%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22