Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
31.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W30-13 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L0-38 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-3 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W23-20 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:53% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:31% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:79% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:38% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:82% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:80% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:52% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 16.7% | 94.2% |
| 6-2 | 33.7% | 37.3% |
| 5-3 | 30.7% | 1.1% |
| 4-4 | 12.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 31.6% (-0.1%) | 31.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 31.9% (+0.3%) | 31.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 33.8% (+2.2%) | 31.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 31.5% (-0.1%) | 32.6% (+0.9%) | |
| 31.5% (-0.2%) | 31.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 31.6% (-0.1%) | 31.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 31.5% (-0.2%) | 31.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 31.8% (+0.1%) | 31.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 31.6% (-0.1%) | 31.7% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ball State
AkronBuffalo
Western Michigan
MassachusettsCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AkronCCG: 33.8% • Scenario: 9.0%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.6%Any 1 loss
95.1%
10.3%
100.0%
1.4%99.2%
0.4%
98.9%
<0.1%
97.3%
1.5%96.7%
0.3%96.3%
0.4%
96.0%
2.6%
90.6%
3.6%Any 2 losses
54.4%
25.5%100.0%
<0.1%97.9%
0.3%97.8%
0.4%97.7%
0.4%96.6%
1.3%95.8%
2.3%90.3%
3.1%79.2%
<0.1%77.2%
<0.1%77.1%
0.1%76.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.5%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%64.5%
0.4%63.1%
0.3%61.6%
0.4%56.7%
0.7%55.1%
0.2%54.4%
0.6%52.4%
0.6%46.9%
2.4%38.7%
0.7%37.6%
0.9%37.1%
0.2%37.0%
0.9%30.3%
3.3%22.3%
5.8%Any 3 losses
20.5%
30.5%82.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%69.6%
0.4%68.5%
0.3%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
0.2%63.4%
0.4%62.1%
<0.1%58.9%
<0.1%58.3%
0.6%57.4%
0.6%57.1%
<0.1%50.5%
0.5%49.7%
2.1%40.7%
0.2%37.2%
0.9%36.3%
0.8%34.9%
0.7%31.6%
2.9%23.3%
5.2%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.6%
<0.1%3.0%
0.7%3.0%
0.6%2.9%
0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.3%
0.2%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.4%
0.2%1.3%
0.9%1.0%
1.3%1.0%
1.5%1.0%
0.6%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.3%0.8%
0.8%0.8%
0.7%0.5%
5.4%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22