MarshallThundering Herd

1-2 T2nd (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2024-09-22 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsStony BrookSTBK	W45-3
2	9/07	@Virginia TechVT	L14-31
4	9/21	@Ohio StateOSU	L14-49
5	9/28	vsWestern MichiganWMU	Win prob:78%
6	10/05	vsApp StateAPP	Win prob:57%
7	10/12	@Georgia SouthernGASO	Win prob:47%
8	10/17	vsGeorgia StateGAST	Win prob:56%
10	11/02	vsUL MonroeULM	Win prob:77%
11	11/09	@Southern MissUSM	Win prob:76%
12	11/16	vsCoastal CarolinaCCU	Win prob:45%
13	11/23	@Old DominionODU	Win prob:41%
14	11/30	@James MadisonJMU	Win prob:8%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0.1%	100.0%
7-1	2.2%	37.0%
6-2	10.7%	7.7%
5-3	24.2%	1.2%
4-4	30.0%	0.1%
3-5	21.8%	0%
2-6	8.9%	0%
1-7	1.9%	0%
0-8	0.2%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

46.9%

20.3%

15.9%

15.5%

1.4%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Texas StateTXST@Sam HoustonSHSU	2.0% (-0.1%)	2.2% (+0.1%)
Georgia SouthernGASO@Georgia StateGAST	2.0% (-0.1%)	2.1% (+0.1%)
LouisianaUL@Wake ForestWAKE	2.1% (+0.0%)	2.1% (+0.0%)
South AlabamaUSA@LSULSU	2.1% (+0.0%)	2.1% (-0.0%)
Ball StateBALL@James MadisonJMU	1.7% (-0.4%)	2.1% (+0.0%)
LibertyLIB@App StateAPP	2.0% (-0.0%)	2.2% (+0.1%)
Western MichiganWMU@MarshallMRSH	2.2% (+0.1%)	2.0% (-0.0%)
UL MonroeULM@TroyTROY	2.1% (+0.1%)	2.1% (-0.0%)
Old DominionODU@Bowling GreenBGSU	2.0% (-0.0%)	2.1% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Sam Houston

Georgia State

Louisiana

South Alabama

Ball State

Liberty

Western Michigan

Old Dominion

CCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Georgia State

Louisiana

James Madison

CCG: 2.2% • Scenario: 41.5%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

37.8%

1.7%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

96.4%

0.1%

93.7%

<0.1%

90.8%

0.1%

88.6%

<0.1%

78.1%

0.1%

10.1%

1.1%

Any 2 losses

10.9%

7.4%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

98.2%

<0.1%

98.1%

<0.1%

95.7%

<0.1%

93.2%

<0.1%

93.1%

<0.1%

92.9%

<0.1%

91.8%

<0.1%

89.5%

<0.1%

88.9%

<0.1%

86.4%

<0.1%

79.0%

<0.1%

76.5%

<0.1%

71.8%

<0.1%

71.0%

<0.1%

25.3%

0.1%

18.6%

0.1%

18.5%

<0.1%

16.4%

<0.1%

16.1%

<0.1%

14.8%

<0.1%

13.5%

0.1%

12.4%

0.4%

12.3%

0.1%

12.0%

0.1%

11.1%

0.1%

11.0%

0.3%

7.5%

0.4%

1.7%

1.3%

1.2%

1.7%

0.9%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com