Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W30-13 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L0-38 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-3 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W23-20 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L3-47 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:16% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:59% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:20% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:68% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:75% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:31% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:89% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 3.6% | 93.8% |
| 6-2 | 16.5% | 32.7% |
| 5-3 | 33.3% | 0.5% |
| 4-4 | 30.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 13.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 9.1% (-0.1%) | 9.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.0% (-0.2%) | 10.9% (+1.7%) | |
| 9.2% (-0.1%) | 9.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 8.6% (-0.6%) | 9.4% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Massachusetts
Akron
Ball State
Miami (OH)CCG: 11.9% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AkronCCG: 10.9% • Scenario: 11.9%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
93.9%
3.6%100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%97.7%
0.1%
96.1%
0.2%
95.2%
0.7%
94.8%
1.1%
91.2%
1.4%Any 2 losses
32.7%
16.5%80.0%
<0.1%69.8%
<0.1%65.3%
<0.1%62.6%
0.2%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%59.4%
0.4%58.9%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.3%
0.3%54.9%
0.8%53.0%
0.4%51.8%
0.1%46.3%
0.5%43.3%
2.4%37.6%
0.4%36.5%
0.7%35.4%
0.2%33.8%
1.0%27.6%
3.1%18.3%
5.7%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29