Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L22-38 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W27-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W21-6 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L6-41 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W30-10 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:74% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:38% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:80% | |
| 11 | 11/06 | Win prob:93% | |
| 12 | 11/13 | Win prob:71% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:23% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:90% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 18.8% | 94.3% |
| 6-2 | 36.6% | 30.3% |
| 5-3 | 28.7% | 0.6% |
| 4-4 | 10.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 31.8% (-0.3%) | 32.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 31.3% (-0.9%) | 38.6% (+6.5%) | |
| 31.7% (-0.4%) | 32.8% (+0.7%) | |
| 32.5% (+0.3%) | 32.0% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Northern Illinois
Akron
Western Michigan
ToledoCCG: 39.5% • Scenario: 4.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AkronCCG: 38.6% • Scenario: 11.9%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.2%Any 1 loss
94.3%
18.8%
98.5%
0.4%
97.8%
0.3%
97.1%
0.8%
96.4%
1.1%
96.1%
1.2%
93.8%
5.1%93.7%
10.0%Any 2 losses
30.2%
36.6%72.7%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%68.0%
0.1%67.2%
0.1%63.4%
0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.6%
0.4%59.4%
0.1%56.6%
0.3%54.6%
0.5%49.3%
0.3%49.0%
0.4%44.5%
0.8%43.9%
1.1%43.5%
1.8%41.8%
1.3%40.6%
2.0%40.3%
3.6%35.2%
4.0%30.1%
2.7%17.6%
16.7%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29