Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W51-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W30-27 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:57% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:98% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:85% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:14% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:53% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:55% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:89% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:89% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.5% | 96.6% |
| 7-1 | 14.1% | 32.6% |
| 6-2 | 32.5% | 0.6% |
| 5-3 | 32.3% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 15.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 8.6% (+2.3%) | 6.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.0% (-0.2%) | 6.7% (+0.4%) | |
| 6.4% (+0.1%) | 6.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.9% (+3.6%) | 1.4% (-4.9%) | |
| 6.0% (-0.2%) | 8.9% (+2.6%) | |
| 6.2% (-0.0%) | 8.3% (+2.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Auburn
South Carolina
Arkansas
VanderbiltCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MissouriCCG: 9.9% • Scenario: 57.4%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
96.6%
1.5%Any 1 loss
32.7%
13.9%
100.0%
<0.1%63.7%
0.3%60.9%
1.2%
54.9%
0.2%46.4%
0.2%
43.8%
1.1%
37.2%
1.4%
25.5%
9.5%Any 2 losses
3.3%
6.7%69.8%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%26.0%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%5.1%
0.2%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.4%
0.2%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.9%2.7%
0.2%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.2%1.7%
0.2%1.6%
0.3%1.1%
1.0%0.8%
1.0%0.7%
1.7%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29