Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/24 | W35-14 | |
| 1 | 8/31 | L13-16 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L13-31 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W36-7 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:25% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:9% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:9% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:57% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:11% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:8% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:45% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:55% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 0.1% | 80.8% |
| 5-2 | 1.3% | 11.4% |
| 4-3 | 8.2% | 0% |
| 3-4 | 24.9% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 35.8% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 23.7% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 5.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.4%) | 0.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.3%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oregon StateHawai'i
Air Force
Nevada
Syracuse
Boise StateCCG: 3.7% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Hawai'iCCG: 0.7% • Scenario: 25.4%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
61.1%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29