Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-29
Conference Standings
| T1 |  UNLVUNLV | 1-0 | 4-0 | 76.8% | |
| T1 |  San José StateSJSU | 1-0 | 3-1 | 49.3% | |
| T1 |  WyomingWYO | 1-0 | 1-4 | 2.5% | |
| 4 |  Fresno StateFRES | 1-1 | 3-2 | 13.5% | |
| T5 |  Boise StateBOIS | 0-0 | 3-1 | 54.3% | |
| T5 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 0-0 | 1-3 | 1.9% | |
| T5 |  Colorado StateCSU | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0.5% | |
| T5 |  Air ForceAF | 0-2 | 1-3 | 0.3% | |
| T5 |  Utah StateUSU | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0.2% | |
| T5 |  Hawai'iHAW | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0.2% | |
| T5 |  New MexicoUNM | 0-1 | 1-4 | 0.2% | |
| T5 |  NevadaNEV | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 76.8%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 75.7% (-1.1%) | 76.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 77.1% (+0.4%) | 76.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 76.5% (-0.3%) | 77.1% (+0.3%) | |
| 81.4% (+4.6%) | 76.4% (-0.4%) | |
| 76.5% (-0.3%) | 76.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 83.0% (+6.2%) | 76.5% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado StateHawai'i
NavyNevadaUtah StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NevadaCCG: 81.4% • Scenario: 7.4%
Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLVUNLV | 100% | 97.2% | 31.9% | 0.5% | 76.8% |
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 88.0% | 17.6% | 0.2% | 54.3% |
| San José StateSJSU | 100% | 97.6% | 36.3% | 0.5% | 49.3% |
| Fresno StateFRES | - | 66.1% | 7.0% | <0.1% | 13.5% |
| WyomingWYO | 100% | 68.8% | 7.0% | <0.1% | 2.5% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 71.7% | 6.2% | <0.1% | 1.9% |
| Colorado StateCSU | 100% | 55.4% | 2.9% | - | 0.5% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | 3.6% | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Utah StateUSU | 100% | 71.3% | 6.1% | <0.1% | 0.2% |
| Hawai'iHAW | 100% | 80.8% | 11.4% | - | 0.2% |
| New MexicoUNM | - | 35.1% | 0.9% | - | 0.2% |
| NevadaNEV | 100% | 93.3% | 30.6% | <0.1% | 0.1% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 1-6 | 0-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLVUNLV(1-0) | 25.9% | 44.3% | 24.5% | 4.9% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 5.9 |
| Boise StateBOIS(0-0) | 13.7% | 39.3% | 34.4% | 10.9% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.5 |
| San José StateSJSU(1-0) | 7.8% | 28.6% | 37.3% | 21.0% | 4.9% | 0.5% | <0.1% | - | 5.1 |
| Fresno StateFRES(1-1) | - | 16.2% | 39.6% | 32.5% | 10.2% | 1.4% | <0.1% | - | 4.6 |
| WyomingWYO(1-0) | 0.1% | 2.2% | 13.4% | 31.0% | 33.7% | 16.7% | 2.9% | - | 3.4 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 1.6% | 11.7% | 29.1% | 33.0% | 18.8% | 5.2% | 0.5% | 3.3 |
| Air ForceAF(0-2) | - | - | 8.7% | 29.1% | 35.8% | 20.5% | 5.4% | 0.5% | 3.1 |
| Colorado StateCSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.8% | 17.4% | 31.7% | 29.6% | 13.5% | 2.3% | 2.7 |
| New MexicoUNM(0-1) | - | 0.4% | 3.5% | 13.9% | 28.2% | 31.4% | 18.3% | 4.3% | 2.4 |
| Utah StateUSU(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 10.6% | 26.3% | 33.9% | 21.8% | 5.2% | 2.2 |
| Hawai'iHAW(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 8.2% | 24.9% | 35.8% | 23.7% | 5.9% | 2.1 |
| NevadaNEV(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 15.9% | 34.7% | 34.0% | 11.8% | 1.7 |
Data from 2024-09-29