Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W38-22 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-26 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W42-14 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:10% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:28% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:28% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:26% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:30% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:23% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:49% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:9% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.3% | 8.7% |
| 5-3 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 12.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 29.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 36.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 18.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 4.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 21.4%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
7.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
12.9%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29