Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/24 | L24-29 | |
| 1 | 8/31 | W28-26 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L17-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L0-27 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W49-16 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:8% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:12% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:20% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:43% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:56% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:5% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:31% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:4% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 0.0% | 93.3% |
| 5-2 | 0.3% | 30.6% |
| 4-3 | 3.3% | 0.1% |
| 3-4 | 15.9% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 34.7% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 34.0% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 11.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+1.0%) | 0.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
San Diego State
Air ForceNevada
Syracuse
Utah StateCCG: 14.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NevadaCCG: 1.1% • Scenario: 7.4%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29