NavyMidshipmen

4-0 T1st (3-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-09-29 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

38.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsBucknellBUCK	W49-21
2	9/07	vsTempleTEM	W38-11
4	9/21	vsMemphisMEM	W56-44
5	9/28	@UABUAB	W41-18
6	10/05	@Air ForceAF	Win prob:52%
8	10/19	vsCharlotteCLT	Win prob:92%
9	10/26	vsNotre DameND(N)	Win prob:5%
10	11/02	@RiceRICE	Win prob:78%
11	11/09	@South FloridaUSF	Win prob:64%
12	11/16	vsTulaneTULN	Win prob:35%
14	11/29	@East CarolinaECU	Win prob:52%
	12/14	vsArmyARMY(N)	Win prob:44%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	3.6%	100.0%
8-1	18.1%	88.3%
7-2	33.9%	49.1%
6-3	29.6%	8.3%
5-4	12.5%	0.0%
4-5	2.2%	0%
3-6	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

39.2%

33.1%

12.8%

8.5%

6.3%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
TulaneTULN@UABUAB	37.9% (-0.7%)	44.9% (+6.2%)
East CarolinaECU@CharlotteCLT	38.2% (-0.5%)	40.6% (+1.9%)
TempleTEM@UConnCONN	37.9% (-0.7%)	38.7% (+0.1%)
NavyNAVY@Air ForceAF	38.6% (-0.1%)	38.7% (+0.1%)
ArmyARMY@TulsaTLSA	37.7% (-1.0%)	46.0% (+7.4%)

Best Winner Combination for

UAB

Charlotte

Temple

Air Force

Tulsa

CCG: 70.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Tulsa

CCG: 46.0% • Scenario: 11.8%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

97.8%

2.3%

100.0%

1.8%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

98.2%

<0.1%

93.3%

<0.1%

90.2%

<0.1%

76.2%

0.2%

Any 2 losses

86.7%

12.0%

100.0%

2.3%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

1.6%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

97.6%

<0.1%

97.4%

1.0%

97.0%

0.5%

96.5%

<0.1%

96.1%

<0.1%

96.0%

0.2%

92.3%

<0.1%

92.0%

0.1%

91.6%

1.6%

90.5%

0.1%

76.3%

0.2%

76.2%

0.2%

73.7%

3.3%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

27.5%

<0.1%

27.3%

<0.1%

13.0%

0.1%

11.8%

<0.1%

10.3%

<0.1%

9.7%

<0.1%

5.1%

0.2%

Any 3 losses

60.4%

26.2%

100.0%

2.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

98.5%

<0.1%

98.0%

1.0%

97.4%

0.5%

97.3%

1.3%

97.2%

0.1%

95.8%

0.2%

94.5%

0.7%

93.8%

<0.1%

91.5%

<0.1%

90.2%

1.5%

88.6%

2.2%

74.8%

4.3%

74.2%

3.0%

74.0%

0.2%

50.0%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

41.8%

<0.1%

40.7%

<0.1%

36.5%

0.3%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

19.6%

<0.1%

19.0%

0.1%

18.9%

<0.1%

18.1%

0.9%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.5%

0.5%

15.5%

0.1%

14.5%

0.9%

14.3%

0.3%

13.3%

<0.1%

12.6%

1.9%

11.1%

0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

7.0%

<0.1%

4.8%

0.2%

4.7%

0.1%

4.1%

3.0%

Any 4 losses

33.5%

26.6%

97.0%

1.2%

95.7%

0.6%

95.6%

0.2%

87.9%

2.0%

73.6%

4.1%

46.7%

<0.1%

44.4%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

35.6%

0.3%

35.5%

0.1%

33.7%

<0.1%

32.7%

0.4%

30.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

0.2%

21.7%

<0.1%

20.2%

0.4%

19.7%

0.6%

19.5%

1.2%

18.4%

0.8%

16.3%

0.1%

14.8%

1.7%

14.1%

0.1%

13.8%

<0.1%

13.7%

0.4%

12.6%

0.3%

12.5%

<0.1%

11.9%

0.9%

11.4%

2.4%

10.9%

<0.1%

9.9%

1.2%

6.7%

<0.1%

5.3%

2.7%

4.9%

4.0%

4.4%

0.2%

0.5%

0.2%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com