American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-06

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

T1ArmyARMY4-05-066.2%
T1NavyNAVY3-05-041.7%
T1TulaneTULN2-04-272.2%
T1CharlotteCLT2-03-30.5%
T1North TexasUNT1-04-17.1%
6East CarolinaECU1-13-30.5%
T7MemphisMEM0-14-110.1%
T7UT San AntonioUTSA0-12-30.7%
T7South FloridaUSF0-12-30.5%
T7FL AtlanticFAU0-12-30.5%
T7RiceRICE0-21-4-
T7TempleTEM0-21-5-
T7TulsaTLSA0-22-4-
T7UABUAB0-21-4-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

142.7%
ArmyARMY
vs
TULNTulane
220.7%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane
317.2%
ArmyARMY
vs
NAVYNavy
43.9%
ArmyARMY
vs
MEMMemphis
53.8%
North TexasUNT
vs
TULNTulane
63.6%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
72.2%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
81.7%
ArmyARMY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
91.3%
NavyNAVY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
100.4%
TulaneTULN
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
110.3%
MemphisMEM
vs
UNTNorth Texas
120.3%
South FloridaUSF
vs
TULNTulane
130.3%
East CarolinaECU
vs
TULNTulane
140.2%
CharlotteCLT
vs
TULNTulane
150.2%
ArmyARMY
vs
CLTCharlotte

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 72.2%
Game
TulaneCCG OddsAway
TulaneCCG OddsHome
MemphisMEM@South FloridaUSF
71.6%
(-0.6%)		74.9%
(+2.7%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@RiceRICE
71.9%
(-0.3%)		72.6%
(+0.4%)
UABUAB@ArmyARMY
82.3%
(+10.1%)		71.7%
(-0.5%)
North TexasUNT@FL AtlanticFAU
71.9%
(-0.3%)		72.7%
(+0.5%)

Best Winner Combination for Tulane

South FloridaSouth FloridaUT San AntonioUTSAUABUABNorth TexasNorth Texas

CCG: 87.6% • Scenario: 0.4%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Tulane

South FloridaSouth Florida

CCG: 74.9% • Scenario: 18.1%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-3Overall
TulaneTULN--100%-80.3%-7.7%-72.2%
ArmyARMY100%72.2%-36.9%-2.2%--66.2%
NavyNAVY100%75.8%-43.8%-4.7%--41.7%
MemphisMEM----82.6%-8.3%<0.1%10.1%
North TexasUNT--100%-94.6%-10.9%<0.1%7.1%
UT San AntonioUTSA----70.8%-3.9%-0.7%
East CarolinaECU----95.2%-10.2%<0.1%0.5%
CharlotteCLT--100%-77.9%-7.3%<0.1%0.5%
South FloridaUSF----58.2%-3.1%-0.5%
FL AtlanticFAU----41.3%-2.5%<0.1%0.5%
RiceRICE------33.3%0.5%-
TempleTEM---------
TulsaTLSA---------
UABUAB---------

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-34-54-43-53-62-61-70-8Avg Wins
ArmyARMY(4-0)25.4%43.8%0.0%24.6%0.0%5.7%0.0%0.5%0.0%<0.1%0.0%-----7.9
TulaneTULN(2-0)-0.0%36.9%0.0%42.3%0.0%17.5%0.0%3.1%0.0%0.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%--7.1
NavyNAVY(3-0)5.3%24.8%0.0%37.5%0.0%24.2%0.0%7.2%0.0%1.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%---6.9
MemphisMEM(0-1)---0.0%8.5%0.0%37.1%0.0%35.9%0.0%15.0%3.1%0.0%0.3%<0.1%0.0%5.3
North TexasUNT(1-0)-0.0%0.5%0.0%4.9%0.0%18.3%0.0%32.6%0.0%28.4%12.6%0.0%2.6%0.2%-4.7
UT San AntonioUTSA(0-1)---0.0%0.6%0.0%6.4%0.0%22.6%0.0%34.6%24.9%0.0%9.3%1.6%<0.1%3.9
CharlotteCLT(2-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%3.7%0.0%19.3%0.0%39.3%30.6%0.0%6.7%--3.8
South FloridaUSF(0-1)---0.0%0.5%0.0%5.5%0.0%20.1%0.0%33.1%27.2%0.0%11.3%2.1%0.1%3.8
East CarolinaECU(1-1)---0.0%0.2%0.0%3.2%0.0%17.2%0.0%36.9%31.2%0.0%10.3%1.1%-3.7
FL AtlanticFAU(0-1)---0.0%0.8%0.0%5.8%0.0%18.2%0.0%29.8%27.4%0.0%13.8%3.7%0.4%3.6
UABUAB(0-2)-----0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%2.5%15.1%0.0%37.2%35.3%9.8%1.7
RiceRICE(0-2)-----0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%2.6%14.6%0.0%34.7%35.3%12.6%1.6
TulsaTLSA(0-2)-----0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.4%0.0%3.1%13.2%0.0%30.5%35.9%17.0%1.5
TempleTEM(0-2)-----0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%1.8%11.5%0.0%33.4%39.6%13.6%1.5

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com