Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
72.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L27-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L19-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W41-33 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W45-10 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W71-20 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:97% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:79% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:93% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:98% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:69% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 36.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 42.3% | 80.3% |
| 6-2 | 17.5% | 7.7% |
| 5-3 | 3.1% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 71.6% (-0.6%) | 74.9% (+2.7%) | |
| 71.9% (-0.3%) | 72.6% (+0.4%) | |
| 82.3% (+10.1%) | 71.7% (-0.5%) | |
| 71.9% (-0.3%) | 72.7% (+0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
South Florida
UTSA
UAB
North TexasCCG: 87.6% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
South FloridaCCG: 74.9% • Scenario: 18.1%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
36.9%Any 1 loss
80.3%
42.3%
99.7%
0.7%
99.7%
1.3%
98.7%
3.0%97.2%
9.6%
82.7%
11.5%
63.0%
16.3%Any 2 losses
7.7%
17.4%55.6%
<0.1%42.0%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%29.4%
0.3%23.2%
0.2%23.0%
0.8%19.0%
0.4%15.2%
0.2%11.7%
0.9%9.2%
0.3%9.1%
0.5%7.9%
3.0%7.7%
1.3%3.9%
4.4%3.3%
5.0%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06