NavyMidshipmen

5-0 T1st (3-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-10-06 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

41.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsBucknellBUCK	W49-21
2	9/07	vsTempleTEM	W38-11
4	9/21	vsMemphisMEM	W56-44
5	9/28	@UABUAB	W41-18
6	10/05	@Air ForceAF	W34-7
8	10/19	vsCharlotteCLT	Win prob:89%
9	10/26	vsNotre DameND(N)	Win prob:7%
10	11/02	@RiceRICE	Win prob:83%
11	11/09	@South FloridaUSF	Win prob:72%
12	11/16	vsTulaneTULN	Win prob:31%
14	11/29	@East CarolinaECU	Win prob:76%
	12/14	vsArmyARMY(N)	Win prob:43%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	5.3%	100.0%
8-1	24.8%	75.8%
7-2	37.5%	43.8%
6-3	24.2%	4.7%
5-4	7.2%	0%
4-5	1.0%	0%
3-6	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

49.9%

41.4%

5.2%

3.1%

0.3%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
MemphisMEM@South FloridaUSF	41.3% (-0.4%)	43.5% (+1.8%)
UTSAUTSA@RiceRICE	41.3% (-0.3%)	42.3% (+0.6%)
UABUAB@ArmyARMY	58.3% (+16.6%)	40.9% (-0.8%)
North TexasUNT@Florida AtlanticFAU	40.8% (-0.8%)	43.3% (+1.6%)

Best Winner Combination for

South Florida

Rice

UAB

Florida Atlantic

CCG: 71.7% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

UAB

CCG: 58.3% • Scenario: 4.5%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.4%

Any 1 loss

93.8%

6.6%

100.0%

4.9%

100.0%

0.5%

97.5%

0.1%

97.1%

<0.1%

95.2%

0.1%

93.4%

<0.1%

51.8%

0.8%

Any 2 losses

72.2%

25.8%

100.0%

6.6%

98.8%

0.2%

96.7%

1.5%

96.6%

1.9%

96.5%

0.1%

96.0%

1.0%

95.5%

<0.1%

94.8%

0.6%

93.9%

0.2%

52.6%

11.4%

51.7%

1.1%

44.4%

<0.1%

26.3%

<0.1%

21.7%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

18.2%

<0.1%

9.5%

<0.1%

8.1%

0.2%

3.5%

0.4%

2.5%

0.1%

2.3%

0.3%

Any 3 losses

42.4%

36.1%

96.8%

2.1%

96.7%

1.3%

96.2%

2.6%

95.5%

0.8%

53.1%

14.8%

26.4%

0.3%

24.1%

<0.1%

20.8%

0.6%

19.2%

0.4%

18.6%

<0.1%

18.3%

0.2%

18.2%

<0.1%

17.7%

<0.1%

17.7%

0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.5%

0.2%

13.3%

<0.1%

5.2%

0.2%

4.8%

0.4%

4.4%

4.3%

2.2%

3.6%

1.5%

3.4%

2.2%

0.4%

2.0%

0.1%

Any 4 losses

5.9%

18.0%

23.8%

0.5%

22.6%

0.4%

20.6%

0.2%

19.4%

0.8%

17.4%

0.3%

15.2%

0.2%

4.1%

2.0%

4.0%

3.1%

3.6%

5.8%

3.1%

4.6%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com