Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-17 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W20-12 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L44-56 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W24-7 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:82% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:75% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:91% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:73% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:92% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:95% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:23% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 8.5% | 82.6% |
| 6-2 | 37.1% | 8.3% |
| 5-3 | 35.9% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 15.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 12.0% (+1.9%) | 1.6% (-8.6%) | |
| 10.1% (+0.0%) | 10.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.2% (+9.0%) | 9.7% (-0.4%) | |
| 10.0% (-0.1%) | 10.4% (+0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Memphis
UTSA
UAB
Florida AtlanticCCG: 23.4% • Scenario: 0.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MemphisCCG: 12.0% • Scenario: 81.8%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
82.6%
8.5%Any 1 loss
8.3%
37.1%17.6%
3.2%16.1%
0.4%
15.7%
0.7%
15.0%
1.9%
14.4%
0.9%
11.2%
2.8%
6.0%
27.3%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06