ArmyBlack Knights

5-0 T1st (4-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-10-06 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

66.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsLehighLEH	W42-7
2	9/07	@Florida AtlanticFAU	W24-7
4	9/21	vsRiceRICE	W37-14
5	9/26	@TempleTEM	W42-14
6	10/05	@TulsaTLSA	W49-7
7	10/12	vsUABUAB	Win prob:96%
8	10/19	vsEast CarolinaECU	Win prob:89%
10	11/02	vsAir ForceAF	Win prob:85%
11	11/09	@North TexasUNT	Win prob:62%
13	11/23	vsNotre DameND(N)	Win prob:10%
14	11/30	vsUTSAUTSA	Win prob:84%
	12/14	vsNavyNAVY(N)	Win prob:57%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	25.4%	100.0%
8-1	43.8%	72.2%
7-2	24.6%	36.9%
6-3	5.7%	2.2%
5-4	0.5%	0%
4-5	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

65.1%

26.1%

5.9%

2.5%

0.3%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
MemphisMEM@South FloridaUSF	65.8% (-0.4%)	67.8% (+1.6%)
UTSAUTSA@RiceRICE	66.2% (+0.0%)	66.1% (-0.1%)
UABUAB@ArmyARMY	26.8% (-39.4%)	68.0% (+1.8%)
North TexasUNT@Florida AtlanticFAU	65.4% (-0.8%)	67.7% (+1.5%)

Best Winner Combination for

South Florida

Rice

Army

Florida Atlantic

CCG: 71.7% • Scenario: 2.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Army

CCG: 68.0% • Scenario: 95.5%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

2.1%

Any 1 loss

95.7%

23.4%

100.0%

19.5%

100.0%

1.6%

100.0%

0.3%

58.7%

<0.1%

53.0%

0.3%

52.1%

0.4%

49.0%

1.3%

Any 2 losses

73.2%

39.5%

100.0%

14.7%

100.0%

3.4%

100.0%

0.2%

64.3%

<0.1%

61.5%

<0.1%

59.9%

0.2%

55.4%

0.9%

54.8%

3.7%

53.4%

0.3%

52.5%

2.4%

51.5%

0.2%

49.2%

<0.1%

48.6%

12.1%

46.9%

0.9%

39.4%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

1.2%

0.3%

Any 3 losses

44.7%

25.3%

100.0%

2.6%

66.7%

<0.1%

63.6%

<0.1%

62.2%

<0.1%

54.6%

0.6%

54.2%

0.7%

53.7%

1.8%

53.2%

0.4%

52.0%

2.7%

50.0%

0.2%

48.5%

2.0%

47.4%

8.7%

40.9%

0.2%

18.2%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

5.3%

0.2%

5.2%

0.1%

3.8%

0.1%

2.8%

<0.1%

2.2%

0.2%

1.9%

0.6%

1.9%

0.4%

1.7%

2.3%

1.6%

1.5%

Any 4 losses

18.7%

7.3%

54.0%

0.1%

52.9%

0.3%

50.9%

0.5%

49.1%

1.6%

20.0%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

6.3%

<0.1%

5.3%

0.4%

4.5%

<0.1%

4.4%

0.2%

4.0%

<0.1%

3.9%

<0.1%

3.5%

0.4%

1.9%

0.3%

1.7%

1.2%

1.6%

1.8%

1.3%

0.4%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com