Charlotte49ers

3-3 T1st (2-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-10-06 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsJames MadisonJMU	L7-30
2	9/07	@North CarolinaUNC	L20-38
3	9/14	vsGardner-WebbGWEB	W27-26
4	9/21	@IndianaIU	L14-52
5	9/28	@RiceRICE	W21-20
6	10/05	vsEast CarolinaECU	W55-24
8	10/19	@NavyNAVY	Win prob:11%
9	10/26	@MemphisMEM	Win prob:9%
10	10/31	vsTulaneTULN	Win prob:7%
12	11/16	vsSouth FloridaUSF	Win prob:46%
13	11/23	@Florida AtlanticFAU	Win prob:36%
14	11/30	vsUABUAB	Win prob:74%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0.0%	100.0%
7-1	0.3%	77.9%
6-2	3.7%	7.3%
5-3	19.3%	0.0%
4-4	39.3%	0%
3-5	30.6%	0%
2-6	6.7%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

42.3%

40.4%

11.5%

3.8%

1.9%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
MemphisMEM@South FloridaUSF	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.6% (+0.0%)
UTSAUTSA@RiceRICE	0.5% (-0.0%)	0.6% (+0.1%)
UABUAB@ArmyARMY	1.2% (+0.7%)	0.5% (-0.0%)
North TexasUNT@Florida AtlanticFAU	0.5% (-0.1%)	0.6% (+0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

South Florida

Rice

UAB

Florida Atlantic

CCG: 2.2% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Florida Atlantic

CCG: 0.6% • Scenario: 33.9%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

78.2%

0.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

89.8%

<0.1%

79.1%

<0.1%

64.6%

0.1%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com