Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W31-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W77-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W42-13 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W52-14 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W42-28 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W41-24 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:65% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:38% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:74% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:27% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:6% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.3% | 98.9% |
| 8-1 | 5.8% | 62.1% |
| 7-2 | 25.1% | 7.4% |
| 6-3 | 39.7% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 23.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 5.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 5.9% (+0.1%) | 5.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.7% (-0.0%) | 5.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.7% (-0.0%) | 5.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.9% (-0.9%) | 7.1% (+1.4%) | |
| 6.0% (+0.3%) | 5.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.6% (-0.1%) | 5.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 6.3% (+0.6%) | 4.9% (-0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Northwestern
Minnesota
Iowa
USC
Purdue
Rutgers
Ohio StateCCG: 25.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
USCCCG: 7.1% • Scenario: 37.7%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.9%
0.3%Any 1 loss
62.0%
5.8%
87.5%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%
85.6%
0.7%
83.5%
<0.1%
82.7%
0.5%54.6%
4.3%Any 2 losses
7.4%
25.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.1%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%28.7%
0.2%27.6%
0.4%22.5%
0.3%21.3%
0.2%14.3%
1.5%13.6%
1.1%13.3%
2.2%12.6%
0.3%11.5%
<0.1%4.8%
11.7%3.9%
7.1%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06