Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-06
Conference Standings
| T1 |  LibertyLIB | 2-0 | 4-0 | 73.9% | |
| T1 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 2-0 | 5-1 | 38.4% | |
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 1-0 | 2-3 | 63.0% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 1-0 | 3-2 | 19.7% | |
| T1 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 1-0 | 2-3 | 2.4% | |
| T6 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 0-1 | 0-5 | 1.4% | |
| T6 |  Louisiana TechLT | 0-1 | 1-3 | 0.7% | |
| T6 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 0-2 | 1-4 | 0.2% | |
| T6 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-1 | 1-4 | 0.2% | |
| T6 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-2 | 0-5 | 0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 73.9%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 78.0% (+4.1%) | 73.4% (-0.5%) | |
| 76.1% (+2.2%) | 73.5% (-0.4%) | |
| 73.9% (-0.0%) | 73.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 52.7% (-21.2%) | 76.2% (+2.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico StateUTEPMiddle TennesseeLibertyCCG: 84.1% • Scenario: 0.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LibertyCCG: 76.2% • Scenario: 90.2%
Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibertyLIB | 100% | 98.4% | 56.4% | 5.3% | - | 73.9% |
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 98.0% | 55.3% | 6.2% | <0.1% | 63.0% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | 100% | 97.2% | 46.7% | 3.5% | - | 38.4% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 97.5% | 44.7% | 2.7% | - | 19.7% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | 100% | 96.2% | 43.1% | 2.4% | - | 2.4% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | - | 98.1% | 50.0% | 3.5% | - | 1.4% |
| Louisiana TechLT | - | 100% | 58.7% | 3.9% | - | 0.7% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | - | 47.5% | 1.7% | - | 0.2% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | 91.7% | 46.4% | 2.1% | - | 0.2% |
| UTEPUTEP | - | - | 25.3% | 1.3% | - | 0.1% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibertyLIB(2-0) | 18.9% | 38.5% | 29.2% | 11.1% | 2.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | - | - | 6.6 |
| Jacksonville StateJXST(1-0) | 10.3% | 33.0% | 34.8% | 16.9% | 4.3% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 6.3 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(2-0) | 3.4% | 18.3% | 34.6% | 29.3% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 0.2% | - | - | 5.6 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(1-0) | 0.8% | 7.5% | 23.8% | 34.2% | 23.7% | 8.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% | - | 5.0 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(1-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.7% | 14.9% | 30.2% | 31.3% | 16.2% | 3.3% | - | 3.5 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(0-1) | - | 0.2% | 1.9% | 9.3% | 23.1% | 31.0% | 23.8% | 9.2% | 1.5% | 3.0 |
| Louisiana TechLT(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.7% | 5.1% | 17.9% | 31.8% | 29.0% | 13.1% | 2.3% | 2.7 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(0-2) | - | - | 0.3% | 4.7% | 17.9% | 32.9% | 29.1% | 12.9% | 2.2% | 2.7 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-2) | - | - | 0.3% | 2.9% | 12.9% | 28.2% | 32.3% | 19.1% | 4.3% | 2.4 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 12.2% | 26.8% | 32.2% | 20.4% | 5.2% | 2.3 |
Data from 2024-10-06