Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W32-25 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L3-52 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L21-49 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L17-45 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L7-24 | |
| 7 | 10/10 | Win prob:36% | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:44% | |
| 9 | 10/23 | Win prob:8% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:42% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:12% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:50% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:39% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 91.7% |
| 6-2 | 0.3% | 46.4% |
| 5-3 | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| 4-4 | 12.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 26.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 32.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 20.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 5.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% (+0.2%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.3%) | 0.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.2%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico State
UTEPMiddle Tennessee
Florida InternationalCCG: 3.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Middle TennesseeCCG: 0.5% • Scenario: 36.3%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
91.7%
<0.1%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06