Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
73.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W41-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W30-24 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W35-24 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:76% | |
| 7 | 10/08 | Win prob:90% | |
| 9 | 10/23 | Win prob:81% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:62% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:88% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:94% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:79% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:60% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 18.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 38.5% | 98.4% |
| 6-2 | 29.2% | 56.4% |
| 5-3 | 11.1% | 5.3% |
| 4-4 | 2.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
56.0%
27.5%
14.4%
0.6%
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 78.0% (+4.1%) | 73.4% (-0.5%) | |
| 76.1% (+2.2%) | 73.5% (-0.4%) | |
| 73.9% (-0.0%) | 73.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 52.7% (-21.2%) | 76.2% (+2.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico State
UTEP
Middle TennesseeLibertyCCG: 84.1% • Scenario: 0.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LibertyCCG: 76.2% • Scenario: 90.2%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
13.5%Any 1 loss
98.6%
32.5%
100.0%
4.2%100.0%
1.8%
100.0%
0.9%
100.0%
3.2%
99.7%
1.5%
98.6%
8.4%
98.6%
3.5%
97.0%
9.0%Any 2 losses
70.9%
31.7%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
1.0%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.1%99.2%
0.3%98.9%
1.1%98.6%
0.6%98.2%
2.6%97.5%
0.6%97.5%
2.9%95.3%
0.4%93.6%
0.2%89.0%
0.3%86.8%
1.1%81.0%
2.0%79.8%
0.5%75.7%
0.8%74.3%
0.9%72.9%
0.4%72.8%
2.1%72.1%
1.1%67.1%
1.0%43.5%
2.1%40.8%
2.3%27.0%
5.6%Any 3 losses
33.6%
16.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
0.2%97.8%
<0.1%97.2%
0.2%96.8%
0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.0%
0.1%95.8%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%85.1%
0.4%81.1%
0.3%80.7%
0.6%80.2%
0.1%78.8%
0.2%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.3%
0.3%76.9%
<0.1%76.1%
0.4%75.9%
<0.1%70.4%
0.2%68.4%
0.1%68.0%
0.6%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
0.3%61.5%
<0.1%49.3%
0.1%42.6%
0.2%41.8%
0.7%36.9%
0.8%30.0%
<0.1%27.6%
1.7%26.9%
0.4%19.7%
0.1%18.2%
0.3%16.3%
0.3%14.7%
0.2%12.1%
0.1%9.1%
0.2%8.6%
0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
0.3%5.7%
0.5%5.4%
<0.1%4.8%
0.2%4.6%
0.7%4.2%
0.3%3.9%
0.5%3.4%
0.3%2.8%
1.3%2.3%
0.6%1.0%
1.5%Any 4 losses
12.5%
3.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.1%
0.1%25.4%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.5%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.6%
0.2%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.3%
0.4%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%0.6%
0.5%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06