Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L16-28 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L10-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L10-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L13-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L24-63 | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:56% | |
| 9 | 10/23 | Win prob:19% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:26% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:56% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:32% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:61% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:50% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.2% | 98.1% |
| 6-2 | 1.9% | 50.0% |
| 5-3 | 9.3% | 3.5% |
| 4-4 | 23.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 31.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 23.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 9.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0% (+0.6%) | 1.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.6% (+0.2%) | 1.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (-0.0%) | 1.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.9% (+0.5%) | 1.4% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico State
Western Kentucky
Louisiana Tech
Florida InternationalCCG: 2.5% • Scenario: 0.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
New Mexico StateCCG: 2.0% • Scenario: 10.3%
Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06