Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L19-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W31-14 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L7-35 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:31% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:69% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:74% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:52% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:63% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:36% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 1.1% | 50.1% |
| 7-2 | 7.6% | 5.1% |
| 6-3 | 21.5% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 30.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 24.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 11.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.9%) | 2.9% (+1.9%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.1%) | 1.1% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.2%) | 0.6% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Maryland
MinnesotaIowa
USC
Purdue
Rutgers
Ohio StateCCG: 6.7% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IowaCCG: 2.9% • Scenario: 31.3%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
50.1%
1.1%Any 1 loss
5.1%
7.7%
11.6%
0.4%
10.4%
0.8%
8.4%
0.5%
5.5%
0.6%
5.5%
1.1%5.4%
1.9%
1.4%
2.5%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06