Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
75.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W56-7 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W51-3 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W35-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:82% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:66% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:98% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:97% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:95% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:93% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 36.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 42.5% | 86.6% |
| 6-2 | 17.1% | 9.6% |
| 5-3 | 3.1% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 76.0% (+0.6%) | 74.8% (-0.5%) | |
| 81.9% (+6.5%) | 45.7% (-29.7%) | |
| 75.4% (-0.0%) | 75.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 77.6% (+2.2%) | 75.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 74.6% (-0.8%) | 75.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 76.4% (+1.1%) | 75.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 80.5% (+5.1%) | 75.3% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Massachusetts
South Carolina
Mississippi StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TexasCCG: 81.9% • Scenario: 82.1%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
36.9%Any 1 loss
86.6%
42.5%
96.7%
2.6%
96.5%
0.7%
93.7%
1.1%
93.2%
1.8%
92.4%
8.1%
83.7%
8.6%
82.7%
19.5%Any 2 losses
9.6%
17.1%39.7%
<0.1%27.4%
0.2%26.1%
0.1%26.0%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%20.6%
0.6%20.5%
0.2%20.5%
<0.1%20.2%
0.6%20.0%
0.4%15.1%
0.3%14.7%
1.4%14.1%
0.4%13.6%
0.3%13.3%
0.4%10.3%
<0.1%9.9%
1.8%8.4%
0.6%6.9%
0.9%6.0%
4.3%4.3%
4.4%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06